Premier League: What It Takes to Finish in the Top 4

Have you ever wondered whether statistics can predict a Top 4 finish in the Premier League? While no single stat rules them all, there are definitely some statistical trends that provide more than a glimpse of what it takes to finish in the Top 4 of the Premier League. Let’s take a look.

If I told you how many goals a team scored in a Premier League season, do you think you could guess correctly whether they finished in the top 4?

Well, in the past 10 years, only 6 teams have scored at least 70 goals and not finished in the top 4. That means 86% of teams that scored at least 70 goals in a season finished in the top 4–regardless of how many goals they conceded.

On the flipside, if I told you how many goals a team conceded in a season, could you guess correctly whether they finished in the Top 4?

In the past 10 years, only 7 teams have conceded less than 40 goals and not finished in the top 4.

This means 85% of teams conceding less than 40 goals finished in the top 4–regardless of how many goals they scored.

Of course, scoring 70+ goals and conceding less than 40 is a heavy task, but anything less than a +30 goal differential can put a top 4 finish at risk.

Only 11 out of the last 40 teams to finish top 4 in the Premier League had a goal differential less than +30–that’s just 27%.

How does this relate to Liverpool’s current Premier League campaign? After eight Premier League matches, the Reds have scored 18 goals and conceded 9 for a goal differential of +9.

If that trend continues, then Liverpool should amass a whopping 90 goals this season while conceding 45.

In the last ten seasons, no team has scored at least 90 goals or had a goal differential of at least +45 and not finished in the top 4. Those are some pretty good odds for a top 4 finish and a return to the Champions League.