I don’t know if I believe in “bogey teams,” but if there is one side in the league that fits the bill for Liverpool, it’s Nottingham Forest.
The last time the pair met resulted in an extremely rare 3–0 home defeat for the Reds. Even though Liverpool hadn’t been in great form at the time, it was still a shock result.
Forest also stunned the home crowd last season. Liverpool had just beaten Manchester United 3–0 at Old Trafford, but were brought back down to earth with a 1–0 defeat thanks to Callum Hudson-Odoi’s second-half strike.
That proved to be the only Premier League match in the entire campaign in which Liverpool failed to find the back of the net, and it was their only league defeat until the title was all but secured in April.
That only adds to the sense of “bogeyness” about Forest. The points were then shared in the reverse fixture in January after a Diogo Jota equaliser.
Tricky Opponents
I expect this to be a very tricky game for Arne Slot’s side. Forest’s style of football is exactly what Liverpool have struggled against this season.
They’ve got big, physical defenders and midfielders, like Murillo and Ibrahim Sangaré, and rapid wingers like Callum Hudson-Odoi and Omari Hutchinson.
They play a low block, looking to capitalise on counter-attacks and set pieces, which has often been effective against Liverpool this season.
And then you have Morgan Gibbs-White, who is one of the finest ball carriers in the league, as well as the technically gifted Elliot Anderson, who has been linked with a big move to some of the top clubs.
Forest have some quality players and indeed, they recently held league leaders Arsenal to a 0-0 draw. Their last match against Wolves was a stalemate too. Clearly, they are not easy to break down.
It’s away from home, and the crowd at the City Ground always turns hostile when Liverpool come to town.
On top of that, Forest will be hoping for a new-manager bounce under the freshly appointed Vítor Pereira, while Slot still doesn’t have a fully fit, natural right-back and clearly doesn’t feel Calvin Ramsay is ready.
Reds in with a shout
What works in Liverpool’s favour, though, is that this isn’t actually the home side’s first match under the new manager.
He faced a tricky and important trip to Fenerbahçe on Thursday night for the first leg of the Europa League knockout round play-off tie. That could mean tired legs on Sunday, whereas Liverpool have had a full week off.
There’s also no reason not to be confident. The Reds have just convincingly beaten two sides superior to Forest, and Mohamed Salah is starting to rediscover his form.
Liverpool must be wary of the counter-attacks and stay switched on to balls from wide areas and set pieces.
If they miss a few chances, they simply have to keep going and trust it will come, exactly as they did against Sunderland.
Had it not been for the tough Thursday night fixture, I might have predicted a draw, given how hard the Reds usually find it against Forest, the fact they’re fighting for their lives, and the potential new-manager bounce.
I still think it will be tight, but I can see the home side tiring and just falling short on the day.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1–2 Liverpool
Team prediction: Alisson, Szoboszlai, Konaté, Van Dijk, Kerkez; Gravenberch, Mac Allister, Salah, Wirtz, Gakpo, Ekitike