Liverpool’s Champions League campaign came to a heartbreaking end after a penalty shootout defeat to Paris Saint-Germain, marking yet another European disappointment at Anfield.
The Reds delivered a far stronger performance compared to their first meeting in Paris, creating far more key chances.
Mohamed Salah came closest early on, only to see his close-range effort cleared off the line by Nuno Mendes in the fourth minute. Later, Jarrell Quansah’s header skimmed the post in the 79th, inches away from a dramatic winner.
The Better team advanced
Liverpool will regret those missed opportunities, but in the end, PSG likely copped a merited place in the quarterfinals. They registered an xG of 5.33 to Liverpool’s 1.98, and while the second leg was evenly contested, their dominance in the first leg should be proof of them being the better team.
However, it’s worth asking–did Liverpool really deserve to be playing PSG in the first round of the knockouts after they finished first in the newly designed UCL league stage?
When the competition was still structured to have eight groups of four teams each, group winners would be seeded and drawn against group-runner ups– seemingly a fair system to reward clubs who topped their groups before converting to an open draw to determine the quarterfinals.
Now, 36 teams comprise a single group table; the top eight teams get automatic spots in the knockouts, while teams ranked nine to 24 must earn their place via a playoff. After that, all teams are fair game in the draw to determine the Round of 16.
This all but removes any real incentive for finishing atop the group, aside from earning two extra rest days—an advantage also given to teams finishing second through seventh, who likewise avoid the playoff round.
It seems that this format also increases the chances for bigger clubs to advance to the knockout even if they struggle early to gain some momentum, which is exactly what happened for PSG.
Format benefitting the heavyweights?
After beating Girona 1-0 to start their UCL campaign, they failed to win their next four matches against Arsenal (2-0 loss), PSV (1-1 draw), Atletico Madrid (2-1 loss), and Bayern Munich (1-0 loss).
Then, they got hot at just the right time, winning their last three group stages by an aggregate score of 11-3 while continuing to fly in Ligue 1.
They finished 15th in the table, but this was a deceiving placement for a team with excellent talent such as Ousmane Dembélé, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Euros winner Gianluigi Donnarumma.
PSG battered their French counterparts Brest in the playoff stage by a 10-0 aggregate scoreline, and it was safe to say that the Parisians entered the knockout stage as one of the most in-form teams in Europe; as fate would have it, Liverpool had the misfortune to draw them.
Why should this have even been a possibility?
After winning seven of their eight league phase matches, Liverpool should have been rewarded with a draw against one of the weaker seeded remaining teams in the Round of 16—giving them a smoother transition into the knockout stage, which presents a completely different challenge from the group phase.
Instead, lower-ranked clubs like PSV and Club Brugge were handed to English sides Arsenal and Aston Villa, both of whom finished lower in the table than Liverpool. Yet, they now find themselves in prime position to advance.
The Gunners all but sealed their place in the quarterfinals with a dominant 7-1 win over PSV, while Villa return to Birmingham with a comfortable 3-1 advantage over Brugge.
This sounds like complaining, but if a rival fanbase’s team finished first in the group stage and had to run up against one of the most in-form teams in Europe for doing so, I’m sure they would be quite frustrated too.
There is no question that ultimately, Liverpool have only themselves to blame for losing the tie; between the perplexing first leg and not capitalizing on chances in the second, they must look in the mirror to see what’s behind this disappointment.
But a premature exit from the UCL carries significant implications for Liverpool, beyond just missing the chance to win another trophy.
Even if they go on to win the Carabao Cup and finish first in the Premier League as they're expected to, an early Champions League departure could seriously jeopardize Mo Salah’s chances of winning the Ballon d’Or—an individual honor he truly deserves.
Additionally, teams earn more financial compensation the further they make it in European competition; if the Reds progressed into the quarters and beyond, Arne Slot could have had that much more money at his disposal for what could be a massive summer transfer window if Salah, Virgil van Dijk and/or Trent Alexander-Arnold say goodbye to the club.
Sure, perhaps Liverpool just got unlucky by drawing PSG and certainly would have needed to beat a team of great quality at some point, but a European exit this soon still sends ripples deeper than competing for a European Cup throughout the club.