Three reasons why Liverpool cannot overlook Newcastle

Liverpool Football Club and their supporters are, without a doubt, in dreamland right now.

After picking up wins against the champions of Germany, England, and Spain & Europe in the past month, they find themselves at the top of both the Champions League and the Premier League tables, with a nine point gap between themselves and second place in the latter.

Underestimating opponents is oftentimes a recipe for disaster, however, and despite Newcastle’s 11th place standing in the Premier League, one must not forget that Manchester City have overcome gaps of eight points or more points in four of their six title-winning seasons under Pep Guardiola.

Remaining razor focused on the mission to pick up points in every game is vital, and here are three reasons as to why Liverpool must not brush aside Newcastle’s hopes to shock the Reds.

1. St. James’ Park is a tricky place to play

Liverpool’s visit to Newcastle’s ground last season should serve as a reminder that matches at St. James’ Park can be very difficult fixtures–before Darwin Núñez’s heroic late brace to win the match and Alisson’s worldie save on a Miguel Almirón rocket to keep them in the game, the opening 25 minutes of that matchup were a nightmare.

Trent-Alexander Arnold was given a yellow card in the first six minutes of the game for sillily throwing the ball away in dissent.

This led to his inability to commit a risky challenge after carelessly giving a pass away to Anthony Gordon in the 25th minute, and the former Toffee punished his England national teammate by putting Newcastle ahead 1-0.

Moments later, Virgil van Dijk was shown a straight red card for a challenge on Alexander Isak. While VVD furiously protested the booking, VAR confirmed the decision and Liverpool were forced to take Luis Díaz off for more defensive reinforcements by subbing on Joe Gomez.

They found a way to win it in the end, but it took massive individual performances from Núñez and Alisson to earn three points.

Although Newcastle’s record's at home (3-1-2) vs. on the road (2-3-2) have not been starkly different this season, some of their most quality results have come at St. James’, including a 2-1 win vs. Tottenham, a 1-1 draw against Man City, and most impressively, a 1-0 win vs. Arsenal, who currently hold sole possession of second place.

Furthermore, looking at an even larger sample size, Liverpool have only picked up wins in half of their last ten Premier League appearances in Newcastle-upon-Tyne, with a record of 5-3-2.

Newcastle are known for having some of the most vocal and impassioned fans in England, and you better believe that the Geordies will be in full-fledged support to help their club attempt to rain on Liverpool’s parade.

2. Newcastle has an underrated defense.

Their current season on the whole might not suggest it, but Newcastle have quietly been a very solid defensive team in the Premier League.

They are currently tied with Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham for conceding the third-fewest goals in the league this season (14), sitting only behind Nottingham Forest (13), Manchester United (13) and Liverpool (9).

The Magpie defense has neutralized some of the biggest offensive stars in the Premier League this season, registering Erling Haaland (0.39 xG), Buyako Saka (0.11 xG) and Son Heung-min (0.07 xG) as non-factors in their clashes this season.

Van Dijk was unlucky not to score a goal off a header from corners against Manchester City, but Newcastle’s veteran defender Dan Burn, who measures one inch taller than Liverpool’s own giant center back, could challenge the Dutchman in the air.

Burn has won the third-most aerial battles (45) in the Premier League this season (which is actually two more than Van Dijk himself has won), using his towering height to his advantage.

Their defense as a unit is also willing to throw their bodies around to stop shots, as they are fifth in the league in total blocks (55).

But when the ball has gotten through, goalkeeper Nick Pope has been very good between the posts this season, as he ranks third in the Premier League in total saves (48), while earning three clean sheets in thirteen games.

Crystal Palace may not have the same quality of attack that Liverpool does, but Pope was instrumental in ensuring that Newcastle picked up a point in their last outing, which finished as a 1-1 draw.

This was a contest in which Newcastle probably didn’t even deserve a serviceable result as they had no shots on target, luckily seeing Palace score an own goal, while Pope made four very fine saves to keep them alive.

Liverpool have exposed some of the most talented defenses in Europe this season, but they should not expect Newcastle to completely bend to their will.

3. Eddie Howe will be desperate to get a win against Liverpool

Newcastle boss Eddie Howe must be craving a victory vs. the Reds; especially during a time when his job may be in the balance.

Howe has lost all six of his managerial appearances for Newcastle against Liverpool by a combined score of 14-5, including a famous 4-2 thrashing the last time they met, which saw Liverpool obliterate the xG record in a Premier League game with analysts thinking they could have put a whopping 7.27 goals up on the Magpies.

The Newcastle manager also has an overall career record of 1-1-14 against Liverpool, registering his only win during his time at Bournemouth in 2016.

When asked about if not getting over the Liverpool hump has been due in part to a psychological challenge during a press conference, Howe said “Let's hope not. I don't prepare games that way, I prepare them with a fresh set of eyes. Teams change and evolve every time you play them. Games against them have been tight, especially home games.”

“Last one was painful from last year. Every time you play opposition like Liverpool you learn new things. It will be a great occasion under lights at St James' park and have to cerate that atmosphere against them,” he continued.

Expectations have been high at Newcastle ever since the Public Investment Fund, the sovereign wealth fund of Saudi Arabia, took over as majority owners of the club in October 2021, which coincided with Howe’s appointment as manager that November.

He finally delivered the Magpies back to the Champions League group stage in 2023-2024 for the first time since 2006-2007, a massive box to tick off his checklist, but it feels that there is still more to be desired for the seventh most valuable club in England.

Newcastle are still yet to win a major trophy since Howe has taken over, coming closest in a Carabao Cup Final loss to Manchester United in 2022-2023.

Howe very well may be under a healthy bit of pressure to finally produce a result against a club that he has struggled to overcome over the course of his career, but what could be a better message of job security than overseeing Newcastle end their current skid against the league leaders?