Liverpool are top of the league but one statistic is causing some angst among the fanbase as the Reds head into Christmas atop of the Premier League.
Being top of the Premier League is brilliant. Every time you get a glimpse of the graphic you smile. Each moment you remember “the Reds are number one” sends you into a moment bliss and harmony with the world. Yet one stat is getting superstitious Liverpool fans nervous this Christmas.
Over the last 10 years in the Premier League the team who has been top of the league at Christmas has gone on to win the title in all but two seasons.
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Great! That gives us an 80% chance of winning the league. Those are great odds!
Hold on. Both times the team who was top didn’t go on to win the league was Liverpool Football Club.
In both 2008/9 under Rafa Benitez and 2013/14 under Brendan Rodgers the Reds held the number one place on Christmas Day. Both those sides finished second, to Manchester United and Manchester City respectively.
Chelsea in 09/10; Man Utd 10/11; Man City 11/12; Man Utd 12/13; Chelsea 14/15; Leicester 15/16; Chelsea 16/17; Man City 17/18 – they all won the league.
There is a notable difference between Jurgen Klopp’s side this season and the two Liverpool sides from the last decade that fell just short.
For a start this team has way more points than both of those. If Liverpool fail to lose to Newcastle on Boxing Day they will be at the half way point of the season undefeated.
The Rafa Benitez side suffered key injuries to Steven Gerrard and Fernando Torres that year meaning the top scoring pair did not play together for most of the season. Klopp has been luckier with forward injuries and has more depth. Xherdan Shaqiri, Daniel Sturridge and Divock Origi all come off the bench to score game changing goals this year.
The Luis Suarez led side of 2013/14 was blistering on the attack – as fluid and deadly as any Liverpool side I’ve seen. But they were fragile at the back and conceded many a sloppy goal. This Klopp side has a string of clean sheets and a vaunted defense and goalkeeper.
While this Liverpool team is better than any in the last 30 years it is also facing a historically good rival in Man City and Tottenham Hotspur also won’t fade away. There is more belief than ever before but Reds won’t take being top at Christmas as any guarantee of summer success whatsoever.